Israel’s Uncertain Path Forward in Gaza Conflict

In the ongoing conflict in Gaza, Israel has vowed to obliterate the Hamas group, launching a relentless campaign known as “Operation Iron Sword” in response to a Hamas attack on southern Israel on October 7th, resulting in approximately 1,400 casualties, mostly civilians. Israel’s strategy, however, appears to lack a clear endgame for the war-torn Gaza Strip.

Israel’s immediate focus has been on destroying Gaza’s infrastructure, even at the cost of high civilian casualties, while pushing the region’s population toward the Egyptian border in pursuit of Hamas. Nevertheless, Israeli officials admit to a lack of a clear vision for the post-war scenario.

Hamas has held control of Gaza since 2006, with a population of 2.3 million people, and Israel’s strategy so far seems to be focused on dropping thousands of bombs, causing widespread destruction. However, the question remains: what comes next? There is a notable absence of an exit strategy for Israel, as noted by regional security sources.

Source: abcnews.go.com

Some of President Joe Biden’s aides are also concerned that, while Israel might be effectively causing long-term damage to Hamas, it has yet to formulate a clear exit strategy. During his recent visit to Israel, President Biden emphasized the need for justice against Hamas while also stressing that the majority of Palestinians are not aligned with the group, stating, “Hamas does not represent the Palestinian people.”

An actual invasion of Gaza has not commenced, but Gaza authorities report that 3,500 Palestinian civilians have perished due to the ongoing airstrikes, with around one-third of them being children.

In the broader region, there is apprehension that the conflict might extend beyond Gaza, potentially involving Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran, its supporter, opening a new and substantial front to support Hamas.

Furthermore, calls for the establishment of humanitarian corridors in Gaza and escape routes for Palestinian civilians have met strong opposition from neighboring Arab states. They fear that an Israeli invasion could trigger a permanent wave of mass displacement, echoing events from the 1948 Israeli War of Independence and the 1967 Arab-Israeli conflict. Millions of Palestinian refugees who were forced to flee at that time still reside in the host countries.

Source: reuters.com

The core of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains in East Jerusalem, which Israel captured in the 1967 war and subsequently annexed, along with Israel’s expansion of settlements throughout the occupied territories. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu openly aligns with the religious and radical right, pledging to claim more land for Jewish settlement.

Throughout the year, hundreds of Palestinians have perished in the West Bank during repeated clashes with Israeli forces and settlers, sparking concerns that violence could erupt in the region alongside the fires of Gaza.

No matter the worst-case scenario, it appears that the situation has the potential to escalate further beyond Gaza’s borders, making the path ahead even more uncertain. (BJW/TB)